Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
